Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fortuna Sittard face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord meet at Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Sittard have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Feyenoord's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Feyenoord arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Feyenoord, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Feyenoord winning.
It is worth noting that Feyenoord have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 60% and Feyenoord 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 58% | Feyenoord 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.34 xG and Feyenoord 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.886 / defence 1.264 | Feyenoord attack 0.974 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.285. Data: 65 Fortuna Sittard games / 65 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 29% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 40%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Feyenoord 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 90% | Feyenoord 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 29% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.34 / Feyenoord 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.886 / def 1.264 | Feyenoord attack 0.974 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Feyenoord xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 29% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord?
Record (9 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 3 | Feyenoord 6W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (0.97x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
29%
3.46
31%
3.19
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.92
1.58
Feyenoord xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
6%
16.82
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.58 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 21W 14D 30L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Feyenoord's form line: 37W 15D 13L from 65 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (14W 5D 13L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 15W 10D 7L from 32 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.17 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 62%.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
Feyenoord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 21W 14D 30L in their last 65 games (1.18 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 37W 15D 13L in their last 65 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.47 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-0 on 5 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Fortuna Sittard
3
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 0, Feyenoord have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 50%, Feyenoord 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Fortuna Sittard) and 56% (Feyenoord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 56% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 56% of Feyenoord's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Fortuna Sittard 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Fortuna Sittard 1-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.34 xG and Feyenoord 1.58 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.89 / defence 1.26 against Feyenoord attack 0.97 / defence 0.88, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 29% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 40%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 58%, Feyenoord 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.