🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Ajax at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajax vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Utrecht travel to Johan Cruijff Arena to take on Ajax. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026, 15:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajax stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Ajax at Johan Cruijff Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Utrecht — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Utrecht's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Ajax) versus 2.00 (Utrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ajax register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Utrecht in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Ajax, 3 for Utrecht and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Utrecht winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Ajax in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Utrecht in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajax 58% versus Utrecht 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 58% | Utrecht 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.20 xG and Utrecht 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.153 / defence 0.904 | Utrecht attack 1.015 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.294. Data: 66 Ajax games / 66 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ajax 58% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 17%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Utrecht 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ajax 60% | Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights