Utrecht 0-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 43%, yet the head-to-head data favours Feyenoord — this Utrecht vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Galgenwaard plays host to Utrecht versus Feyenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 22). Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 11:15 UK time.
Form
Utrecht (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Utrecht's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Utrecht are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Feyenoord's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Utrecht, 1.10 for Feyenoord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Feyenoord, who have 6 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Utrecht 2–3 Feyenoord — a Feyenoord win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Feyenoord have won 6 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utrecht 65% and Feyenoord 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 57% | Feyenoord 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.50 xG and Feyenoord 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.909 / defence 0.823 | Feyenoord attack 1.079 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.430. Data: built from Utrecht's last 54 games and Feyenoord's last 55.
Result probabilities: Utrecht 43% | Draw 25% | Feyenoord 32%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.35 | Draw 3.96 | Feyenoord 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utrecht at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Utrecht's last 10 home games and Feyenoord's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Utrecht 60% (last 10 home games) | Feyenoord 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 43% | Draw 25% | Feyenoord 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Utrecht 1.50 / Feyenoord 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.909 / def 0.823 | Feyenoord attack 1.079 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Feyenoord xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Utrecht vs Feyenoord FAQs
What time does Utrecht vs Feyenoord kick off?
Utrecht vs Feyenoord kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Utrecht 0 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is Utrecht vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Feyenoord part of?
Utrecht vs Feyenoord is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 43% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Utrecht and Feyenoord will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Utrecht vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Utrecht's attack at 0.91x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.08x) against Utrecht's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Utrecht's last 54 games and Feyenoord's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
43%
2.35
25%
3.96
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.77
1.27
Feyenoord xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Utrecht vs Feyenoord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.27 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Utrecht have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 24W 16D 14L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Feyenoord's form line: 32W 10D 12L from 54 games, 1.96 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Utrecht against 1.96 for Feyenoord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Utrecht have posted 1.74 PPG from their last 27 home games (14W 5D 8L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 14W 7D 6L from their last 27 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.33 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 61%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
Utrecht (Home) vs Feyenoord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Utrecht
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Utrecht vs Feyenoord Form FAQs
What form are Utrecht and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 24W 16D 14L in their last 54 games (1.63 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 32W 10D 12L in their last 54 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.74 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Utrecht and Feyenoord, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Feyenoord have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won Feyenoord 5-0 Utrecht on 20 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Utrecht
1
Draws
8
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Utrecht vs Feyenoord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Feyenoord?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Utrecht have won 1, Feyenoord have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Feyenoord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Feyenoord 5-0 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 52%, Feyenoord 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Utrecht) and 63% (Feyenoord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Utrecht vs Feyenoord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Utrecht and Feyenoord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Utrecht's games and 59% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Utrecht and Feyenoord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Utrecht's matches and 63% of Feyenoord's.
Do Utrecht and Feyenoord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Utrecht's recent matches and 89% of Feyenoord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Feyenoord defy the odds to beat Utrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Utrecht 0-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.50 xG and Feyenoord 1.27 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.91 / defence 0.82 against Feyenoord attack 1.08 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 43% | Draw 25% | Feyenoord 32%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Feyenoord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 57%, Feyenoord 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Feyenoord's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.63 PPG, Feyenoord 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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