Twente 2-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Twente (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Twente face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Twente welcome Groningen to De Grolsch Veste in Eredivisie (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 22 February 2026 at 11:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Twente stand at 4W 6D 0L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Twente's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Groningen have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Groningen's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Twente are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Twente hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Groningen and 4 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Twente 1–1 Groningen — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Twente an edge — 3 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Twente trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Groningen trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Twente 61% versus Groningen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Twente 49% | Groningen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Twente 1.47 xG and Groningen 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Twente attack 1.011 / defence 0.718 | Groningen attack 0.849 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.400. Twente have a tight defence (rating 0.718), which is pulling Groningen's projected output down. Data: built from Twente's last 57 games and Groningen's last 57.
Result probabilities: Twente 52% | Draw 26% | Groningen 22%. Fair-value odds: Twente 1.93 | Draw 3.78 | Groningen 4.59. Twente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Twente are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Twente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Twente 50% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Twente vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 24 | Venue: De Grolsch Veste • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Twente 52% | Draw 26% | Groningen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Twente 1.47 / Groningen 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Twente attack 1.011 / def 0.718 | Groningen attack 0.849 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Twente (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Twente xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Groningen xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Twente vs Groningen FAQs
What time does Twente vs Groningen kick off?
Twente vs Groningen kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at De Grolsch Veste.
What was the final score in Twente vs Groningen?
Twente 2 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Twente vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at De Grolsch Veste.
What competition is Twente vs Groningen part of?
Twente vs Groningen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Twente vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Twente a 52% chance of winning, Groningen a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Twente vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Twente and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Twente vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Twente's attack rating (1.01) and Groningen's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Twente's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Twente's last 57 games and Groningen's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.78
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Twente xG
Total xG
2.33
0.85
Groningen xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
5%
19.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Twente vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Twente vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Twente and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Twente and 0.85 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Twente vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Twente have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 23W 19D 15L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Groningen's form line: 19W 13D 25L from 57 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Twente on 1.54 PPG, Groningen on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Twente have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 28 home games (16W 7D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Twente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Groningen have gone 7W 4D 17L from their last 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Twente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Twente are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.23 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Twente have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Twente
Blended
Groningen
Blended
Twente (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Twente
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Twente vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are Twente and Groningen in coming into this match?
Twente have gone 23W 19D 15L in their last 57 games (1.54 PPG), while Groningen have gone 19W 13D 25L in their last 57 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Twente at home or Groningen away?
Twente's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Twente at home: 1.96 PPG; Groningen away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 May 2022, when Twente won Twente 3-0 Groningen.
Twente's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Twente
5
Draws
0
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Twente vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Twente and Groningen?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Twente have won 4, Groningen have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Twente and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Groningen 2-2 Twente.
Who has won more matches between Twente and Groningen?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Twente 50%, Groningen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Twente) and 50% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Twente keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Groningen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Twente home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Twente vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Twente and Groningen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Twente's recent matches and 54% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Twente and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Twente's recent games and 50% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Twente and Groningen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Twente's recent matches and 71% of Groningen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Twente edge out Groningen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente beat Groningen 2-1 at De Grolsch Veste, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 1.47 xG and Groningen 0.85 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 1.01 / defence 0.72 against Groningen attack 0.85 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Twente 52% | Draw 26% | Groningen 22%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 49%, Groningen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Twente's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Twente 1.54 PPG, Groningen 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Twente win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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