FC Volendam 3-2 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Groningen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 5W 2D 3L at Kras Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Groningen have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Groningen have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.10 for Groningen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Volendam lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–3 with Groningen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Groningen — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 64% versus Groningen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 71% | Groningen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.39 xG and Groningen 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.916 / defence 0.956 | Groningen attack 0.873 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.366. Data: 24 FC Volendam games / 58 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 42% | Draw 28% | Groningen 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Groningen 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | Groningen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 42% | Draw 28% | Groningen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Volendam 1.39 / Groningen 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.916 / def 0.956 | Groningen attack 0.873 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Groningen xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Groningen kick off?
FC Volendam vs Groningen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Groningen?
FC Volendam 3 - 2 Groningen.
Where is FC Volendam vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Groningen part of?
FC Volendam vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 42% chance of winning, Groningen a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Volendam and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Groningen?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 1 | Groningen 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and Groningen in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Groningen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.92) and Groningen's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.87x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 24/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.56
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.53
1.14
Groningen xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.14 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 31W 10D 17L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 19W 13D 26L from 58 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 2.10 PPG from 29 outings (19W 4D 6L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 7W 4D 18L from 29 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.22 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Groningen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 31W 10D 17L in their last 58 games (1.78 PPG), while Groningen have gone 19W 13D 26L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Groningen away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.10 PPG; Groningen away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Groningen?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Groningen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when FC Volendam 3-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Groningen?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 69%, Groningen 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for FC Volendam and 52% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of FC Volendam's games and 55% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of FC Volendam's matches and 52% of Groningen's.
Do FC Volendam and Groningen tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Groningen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Groningen 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Groningen 3-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.39 xG and Groningen 1.14 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Groningen outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Groningen attack 0.87 / defence 0.92, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 42% | Draw 28% | Groningen 30%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, Groningen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.