Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sparta Rotterdam face NEC Nijmegen.

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Match Analysis

Sparta Rotterdam host NEC Nijmegen at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie (matchday 23). Kick-off is Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

NEC Nijmegen — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Sparta Rotterdam) versus 2.30 (NEC Nijmegen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, NEC Nijmegen 2, with 5 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Sparta Rotterdam 1–3 NEC Nijmegen — a NEC Nijmegen win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

NEC Nijmegen in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 50% versus NEC Nijmegen 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 45% | NEC Nijmegen 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.54 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.844 / defence 0.931 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.414 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.430. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack rating of 1.414, which lifts their away xG to 1.88. Data: built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 56 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 56.

Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 32% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 46%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 3.13 | Draw 4.50 | NEC Nijmegen 2.18. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.54 / 1.88) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 home games and NEC Nijmegen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Rotterdam 30% (last 10 home games) | NEC Nijmegen 90% (last 10 away games).

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