Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Rotterdam face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Feyenoord travel to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam's home record at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Feyenoord, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Sparta Rotterdam.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 58% versus Feyenoord 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 53% | Feyenoord 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.16 xG and Feyenoord 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.864 / defence 0.878 | Feyenoord attack 1.434 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.381. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.434 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Sparta Rotterdam games / 36 Feyenoord games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 24% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 50%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Feyenoord 2.00. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Feyenoord 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 24% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.16 / Feyenoord 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.864 / def 0.878 | Feyenoord attack 1.434 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Feyenoord xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 24% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
Record (6 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 1 | Feyenoord 5W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
24%
4.16
26%
3.81
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.89
1.74
Feyenoord xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
18%
5.68
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
4%
23.61
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.74 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 13W 9D 14L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord's form line: 27W 7D 2L from 36 games, 2.44 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 14W 3D 1L from 18 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.72 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 27W 7D 2L in their last 36 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.33 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, Feyenoord have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Feyenoord 3-4 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 56%, Feyenoord 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Sparta Rotterdam and 72% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 61% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 72% of Feyenoord's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord finished level at 1-1 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.16 xG and Feyenoord 1.74 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against Feyenoord attack 1.43 / defence 0.86, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 24% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 50%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 53%, Feyenoord 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.