Willem II 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Sparta Rotterdam travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Willem II have gone 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Willem II) versus 1.50 (Sparta Rotterdam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Willem II, 2 for Sparta Rotterdam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 66% and Sparta Rotterdam 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 50% | Sparta Rotterdam 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.34 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.957 / defence 0.967 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.022 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.354. Data: 3 Willem II games / 37 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 34% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 34%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 70% | Sparta Rotterdam 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 34% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Willem II 1.34 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.957 / def 0.967 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.022 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sparta Rotterdam xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Willem II 1 - 2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 34% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (2 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 2W.
What form are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Willem II (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Sparta Rotterdam's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
34%
2.91
32%
3.17
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.68
1.34
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Willem II and 1.34 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 38 games, going 23W 10D 5L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 1.37 PPG from 38 outings (14W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 14W 3D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (8W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.42 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Sparta Rotterdam in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 23W 10D 5L in their last 38 games (2.08 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 14W 10D 14L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Willem II's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.37 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Willem II
0
Draws
4
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Willem II at 74%, Sparta Rotterdam at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Willem II and 53% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Sparta Rotterdam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Willem II's games and 63% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Willem II's matches and 53% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Rotterdam defy the odds to beat Willem II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.34 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.34 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 34% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 34%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Sparta Rotterdam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 50%, Sparta Rotterdam 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.