Groningen 2-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Feyenoord travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024, 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Euroborg, Groningen have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Euroborg.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Groningen 2.00 PPG, Feyenoord 2.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Groningen, 2 for Feyenoord and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Feyenoord winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 51% versus Feyenoord 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 60% | Feyenoord 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.23 xG and Feyenoord 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.936 / defence 0.959 | Feyenoord attack 1.385 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.307. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Groningen games / 37 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 24% | Draw 30% | Feyenoord 46%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Feyenoord 2.17. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 40% | Feyenoord 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 24% | Draw 30% | Feyenoord 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Groningen 1.23 / Feyenoord 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.936 / def 0.959 | Feyenoord attack 1.385 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Feyenoord xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Feyenoord kick off?
Groningen vs Feyenoord kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Groningen 2 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Groningen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Feyenoord part of?
Groningen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 24% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Groningen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Record (4 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 2 | Feyenoord 2W.
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in?
Groningen (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.94) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
24%
4.16
30%
3.37
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.97
1.74
Feyenoord xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
4%
23.64
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Groningen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Groningen and 1.74 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 37 games, going 22W 10D 5L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.41 PPG from 37 outings (27W 8D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 2.05 PPG, Feyenoord on 2.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 12W 5D 1L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.50 points per game from 18 outings (14W 3D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.68 scored and 0.78 conceded. Groningen's scoring rate against Feyenoord's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Feyenoord in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 22W 10D 5L in their last 37 games (2.05 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 27W 8D 2L in their last 37 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 2.28 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Groningen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Groningen
3
Draws
5
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, Feyenoord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 44%, Feyenoord 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Groningen and 67% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Feyenoord in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Groningen's recent matches and 61% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Groningen's matches and 67% of Feyenoord's.
Do Groningen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen and Feyenoord finished level at 2-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.23 xG and Feyenoord 1.74 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Feyenoord attack 1.39 / defence 0.84, drawn from 4/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 24% | Draw 30% | Feyenoord 46%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 60%, Feyenoord 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 2.05 PPG, Feyenoord 2.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.