Groningen 0-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024, 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 8W 2D 0L at Euroborg — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Euroborg.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Groningen 2.40 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Groningen have won 1, AZ Alkmaar 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 50% versus AZ Alkmaar 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 61% | AZ Alkmaar 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.51 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.121 / defence 1.106 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.953 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.412. Data: 2 Groningen games / 36 AZ Alkmaar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Groningen 38% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 37%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | AZ Alkmaar 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 50% | AZ Alkmaar 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 38% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Groningen 1.51 / AZ Alkmaar 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.121 / def 1.106 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.953 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Groningen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.49
AZ Alkmaar xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Groningen 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 38% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Groningen and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (4 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 3W.
What form are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar in?
Groningen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 1.12x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.92
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.00
1.49
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
9%
11.72
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Groningen and 1.49 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 36 games, going 22W 8D 6L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.97 PPG from 36 outings (21W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 2.06 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 12W 4D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.78 points per game from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.00 scored and 1.08 conceded. AZ Alkmaar's attacking output running into Groningen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; AZ Alkmaar in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 22W 8D 6L in their last 36 games (2.06 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 21W 8D 7L in their last 36 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Groningen's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 2.22 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Groningen or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Groningen
1
Draws
5
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 44%, AZ Alkmaar 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Groningen and 61% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Groningen's recent matches and 50% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Groningen's matches and 61% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Groningen and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Groningen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen and AZ Alkmaar finished level at 0-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.51 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.49 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.12 / defence 1.11 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.95 / defence 0.85, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 38% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 37%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 61%, AZ Alkmaar 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 2.06 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.