PEC Zwolle 1-5 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PEC Zwolle face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feyenoord make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Feyenoord have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Feyenoord have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Feyenoord arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Feyenoord, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–5 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 66% versus Feyenoord 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PEC Zwolle 63% | Feyenoord 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.33 xG and Feyenoord 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.955 / defence 1.115 | Feyenoord attack 1.150 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.340. Data: 35 PEC Zwolle games / 35 Feyenoord games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 45%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Feyenoord 2.22. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 80% | Feyenoord 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.33 / Feyenoord 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.955 / def 1.115 | Feyenoord attack 1.150 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Feyenoord xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 5 Feyenoord.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 29% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord?
Record (4 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 4W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.95x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.15x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
29%
3.48
26%
3.87
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.05
1.72
Feyenoord xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
5%
19.42
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.72 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 35 games, going 9W 9D 17L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.43 PPG from 35 outings (26W 7D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 5W 3D 9L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.47 points per game from 17 outings (13W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.66 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 9W 9D 17L in their last 35 games (1.03 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 26W 7D 2L in their last 35 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.06 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.47 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Feyenoord have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-0 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
8
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 0, Feyenoord have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 0-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 65%, Feyenoord 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for PEC Zwolle and 71% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of PEC Zwolle's games and 59% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 71% of Feyenoord's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 1-5 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat PEC Zwolle 1-5 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.33 xG and Feyenoord 1.72 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Feyenoord outscored their 1.72 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Feyenoord attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 45%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 63%, Feyenoord 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.