PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven and Willem II meet at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
PSV Eindhoven's overall Eredivisie record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PSV Eindhoven's home record at Philips Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Willem II have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. PSV Eindhoven's 2.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Willem II's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 for Willem II and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PSV Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 94% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 79% and Willem II 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 87% | Willem II 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 3.43 xG and Willem II 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.545 / defence 0.882 | Willem II attack 0.801 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.545 — their λ of 3.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing PSV Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 PSV Eindhoven games / 3 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 77% | Draw 13% | Willem II 10%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.30 | Draw 7.69 | Willem II 10.00. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (77%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (3.43 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 85% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 90% | Willem II 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 77% | Draw 13% | Willem II 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% | BTTS 71% | xG PSV Eindhoven 3.43 / Willem II 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.545 / def 0.882 | Willem II attack 0.801 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.43
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Willem II xG
71%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II is scheduled to kick off at 17:45 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Philips Stadion.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 77% chance of winning, Willem II a 10% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 2W | Draws 1 | Willem II 1W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Willem II in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.54x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 3.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.80x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 38/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (6.7%), 4-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
77%
1.30
13%
7.90
10%
9.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
6.7%
Home win
4 – 1
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.43
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
4.76
1.33
Willem II xG
1.30
77%
Home win
7.90
13%
Draw
9.52
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
70%
Over 3.5
1.43
30%
Under 3.5
3.33
52%
Over 4.5
1.92
48%
Under 4.5
2.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
3%
30.97
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 3.43 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.33 for Willem II, a combined total of 4.76.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, PSV Eindhoven have picked up 2.47 PPG on a 30W 4D 4L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II's form line: 19W 8D 11L from 38 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Willem II.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PSV Eindhoven have posted 2.33 PPG from 18 outings (13W 3D 2L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 11W 2D 5L from 18 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 3.05 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.58 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Willem II in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 30W 4D 4L in their last 38 games (2.47 PPG), while Willem II have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Willem II away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.33 PPG; Willem II away: 1.94 PPG.
Have PSV Eindhoven or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Willem II in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
PSV Eindhoven
1
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 2, Willem II have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Willem II?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for PSV Eindhoven, 56% for Willem II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 94% for PSV Eindhoven and 67% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 72% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 56% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 94% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 67% of Willem II's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Willem II tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Willem II in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.