Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (90%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambuur face PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 12 as Cambuur welcome PSV Eindhoven to Kooi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur at Kooi Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cambuur are significantly better at Kooi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PSV Eindhoven stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. PSV Eindhoven's 2.60 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Cambuur's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cambuur, 3 for PSV Eindhoven and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 2–5 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
PSV Eindhoven trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 71% and PSV Eindhoven 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 66% | PSV Eindhoven 87%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.10 xG and PSV Eindhoven 4.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.789 / defence 1.710 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.416 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.416 — the away xG of 4.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Cambuur games / 38 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 4% | Draw 6% | PSV Eindhoven 90%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 25.00 | Draw 16.67 | PSV Eindhoven 1.11. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (90%) — a 86pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 92% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 5.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 92% — a total xG of 5.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.10 / 4.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 90% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 5.65 combined xG gives a 92% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 80% | PSV Eindhoven 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 4% | Draw 6% | PSV Eindhoven 90% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 92% | BTTS 66% | xG Cambuur 1.10 / PSV Eindhoven 4.55 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.789 / def 1.710 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.416 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (90%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
4.55
PSV Eindhoven xG
66%
BTTS
98%
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
82%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
Where is Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 4% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 90% chance, and a 6% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 92%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 3W.
What form are Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 0.79x the league average against PSV Eindhoven's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 4.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-4 carries the highest individual probability at 6.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-5 (6.3%), 0-4 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 19% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
4%
26.95
6%
16.08
90%
1.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 4
6.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 4
6.3%
Away win
1 – 5
6.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Cambuur xG
Total xG
5.65
4.55
PSV Eindhoven xG
26.95
4%
Home win
16.08
6%
Draw
1.11
90%
Away win
Goals Markets
98%
Over 1.5
1.02
2%
Under 1.5
50.00
92%
Over 2.5
1.09
8%
Under 2.5
12.50
82%
Over 3.5
1.22
18%
Under 3.5
5.56
67%
Over 4.5
1.49
33%
Under 4.5
3.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
1%
94.73
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
0%
–
30%
3.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 |
| 1 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 6.3 |
| 2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5 | – | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-4 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.9%.
How many goals are Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cambuur and 4.55 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 5.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 90%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur come into this having played 38 games, going 20W 9D 9L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PSV Eindhoven sit at 2.47 PPG from 38 outings (30W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambuur's home form reads 11W 4D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have taken 2.58 points per game from 19 outings (16W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.05 scored and 1.32 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 79%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 20W 9D 9L in their last 38 games (1.82 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 30W 4D 4L in their last 38 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.95 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when PSV Eindhoven won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambuur
0
Draws
3
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when PSV Eindhoven 5-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 68%, PSV Eindhoven at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Cambuur and 79% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cambuur's games and 74% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Cambuur's matches and 79% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.