Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 11 as Heerenveen welcome NEC Nijmegen to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heerenveen have posted 6W 2D 2L at Abe Lenstra Stadion — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Abe Lenstra Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Heerenveen are significantly better at Abe Lenstra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heerenveen at 1.20 PPG versus NEC Nijmegen's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Heerenveen, 3 for NEC Nijmegen and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Heerenveen trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heerenveen 58% and NEC Nijmegen 84% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heerenveen 70% | NEC Nijmegen 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.69 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.021 / defence 0.742 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.934 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.813. Heerenveen's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Heerenveen games / 43 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 46% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 27%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | NEC Nijmegen 3.70. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 40% | NEC Nijmegen 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 46% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Heerenveen 1.69 / NEC Nijmegen 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 1.021 / def 0.742 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.934 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.813 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.26
NEC Nijmegen xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen is scheduled to kick off at 17:45 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
Where is Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 46% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (10 meetings): Heerenveen 3W | Draws 4 | NEC Nijmegen 3W.
What form are Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heerenveen's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.70
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.95
1.26
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
5%
20.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.26 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heerenveen's recent record stands at 17W 11D 15L from 43 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 10L across 43 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heerenveen on 1.44 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heerenveen have managed 10W 6D 5L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 9W 7D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 2.14 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen in 84%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 18W 15D 10L in their last 43 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Heerenveen's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.71 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heerenveen's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
4
Draws
3
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Heerenveen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Heerenveen at 62%, NEC Nijmegen at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Heerenveen and 67% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Heerenveen's games and 86% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Heerenveen's matches and 67% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.