Willem II vs Cambuur – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cambuur (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Willem II face Cambuur.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Cambuur at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cambuur — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Cambuur have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 6 encounters against Willem II's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Cambuur winning.
It is worth noting that Cambuur have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cambuur trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 57% and Cambuur 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 57% | Cambuur 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.14 xG and Cambuur 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.651 / defence 1.235 | Cambuur attack 0.700 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.782. Willem II's attack strength of 0.651 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Willem II games / 8 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 26% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 45%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Cambuur 2.22. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 50% | Cambuur 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 26% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Willem II 1.14 / Cambuur 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.651 / def 1.235 | Cambuur attack 0.700 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.782 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Cambuur xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Cambuur kick off?
Willem II vs Cambuur is scheduled to kick off at 16:45 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
Where is Willem II vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Cambuur part of?
Willem II vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 26% chance of winning, Cambuur a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Willem II and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Cambuur?
Record (6 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 3 | Cambuur 3W.
What form are Willem II and Cambuur in?
Willem II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.65x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
26%
3.81
29%
3.43
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.68
1.54
Cambuur xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
6%
17.79
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Willem II and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Willem II and 1.54 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II's recent record stands at 22W 9D 16L from 47 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 10L across 47 games — 1.85 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.60 PPG, Cambuur on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 9W 6D 8L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 11W 6D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.87 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 22W 9D 16L in their last 47 games (1.60 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 25W 12D 10L in their last 47 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.43 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and Cambuur runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Willem II's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Willem II
3
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Cambuur have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Willem II 0-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 52%, Cambuur 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Willem II) and 56% (Cambuur).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Willem II's games and 65% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Willem II's recent games and 56% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Cambuur tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.