NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
NEC Nijmegen welcome Heracles to Goffertstadion in Eredivisie (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, NEC Nijmegen have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Heracles stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Heracles have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
NEC Nijmegen are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 60% of Heracles's (from NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and Heracles's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 2 for Heracles and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended NEC Nijmegen 4–1 Heracles — a NEC Nijmegen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Heracles in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 60% and Heracles 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 69% | Heracles 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.72 xG and Heracles 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.254 / defence 0.973 | Heracles attack 0.879 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.427. NEC Nijmegen carry an above-average attack rating of 1.254 — their 2.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Heracles's defence rating of 1.326 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing NEC Nijmegen's projected output up. Data: built from NEC Nijmegen's last 54 games and Heracles's last 55.
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 69% | Draw 16% | Heracles 15%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.45 | Draw 6.17 | Heracles 6.74. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (69%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.72 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and Heracles's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NEC Nijmegen 60% (last 10 home games) | Heracles 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 22 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 69% | Draw 16% | Heracles 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.72 / Heracles 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.254 / def 0.973 | Heracles attack 0.879 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.72
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Heracles xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles FAQs
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
NEC Nijmegen 4 - 1 Heracles.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 69% chance of winning, Heracles a 15% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Heracles will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (1.25) and Heracles's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from NEC Nijmegen's last 54 games and Heracles's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
69%
1.45
16%
6.17
15%
6.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.72
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.94
1.22
Heracles xG
1.45
69%
Home win
6.17
16%
Draw
6.74
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
7%
15.13
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
1%
102.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.72 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.22 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 23W 12D 20L from 55 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 28L across 55 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours NEC Nijmegen by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 12W 8D 6L from their last 26 home games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 4W 4D 18L across their last 26 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.31 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Heracles in 62%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Heracles
Blended
NEC Nijmegen (Home) vs Heracles (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles Form FAQs
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Heracles in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 23W 12D 20L in their last 55 games (1.47 PPG), while Heracles have gone 14W 13D 28L in their last 55 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Heracles away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.69 PPG; Heracles away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: NEC Nijmegen have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Aug 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won Heracles 1-4 NEC Nijmegen.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, Heracles have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Heracles last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 73%, Heracles 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for NEC Nijmegen and 62% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NEC Nijmegen and Heracles matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 54% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NEC Nijmegen and Heracles matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 62% of Heracles's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Heracles matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 85% of Heracles's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Heracles 4-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.72 xG and Heracles 1.22 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Heracles attack 0.88 / defence 1.33, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 69% | Draw 16% | Heracles 15%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 69%, Heracles 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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