AZ Alkmaar 1-3 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar at AFAS Stadion this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, NEC Nijmegen are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, NEC Nijmegen in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 4W, NEC Nijmegen 2W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 65% and NEC Nijmegen 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 65% | NEC Nijmegen 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.92 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.016 / defence 1.107 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.359 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.462. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — the away xG of 2.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 AZ Alkmaar games / 53 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 35% | Draw 20% | NEC Nijmegen 45%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.86 | Draw 5.00 | NEC Nijmegen 2.22. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.12. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.12 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
AZ Alkmaar dominate the H2H record, yet NEC Nijmegen are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 90% | NEC Nijmegen 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 35% | Draw 20% | NEC Nijmegen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 76% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.92 / NEC Nijmegen 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.016 / def 1.107 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.359 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
2.20
NEC Nijmegen xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 3 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 35% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 45% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (9 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 4W | Draws 3 | NEC Nijmegen 2W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.36x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 2.20.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
35%
2.89
20%
4.95
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
4.12
2.20
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.15
Clean Sheet
11%
9.02
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
4%
26.04
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.20 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 4.12.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 54 games, going 25W 14D 15L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.44 PPG from 54 outings (22W 12D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 1.44 for NEC Nijmegen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 13W 8D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (10W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.89 scored and 1.52 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 25W 14D 15L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 22W 12D 20L in their last 54 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.74 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
NEC Nijmegen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
3
Draws
3
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 74%, NEC Nijmegen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for AZ Alkmaar and 59% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 48% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 59% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AZ Alkmaar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat AZ Alkmaar 1-3 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.92 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.20 xG, a combined 4.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 2.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.36 / defence 1.17, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 35% | Draw 20% | NEC Nijmegen 45%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 65%, NEC Nijmegen 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.65 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.