Fortuna Sittard 0-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fortuna Sittard face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord meet at Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Sittard have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at Fortuna Sittard Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Feyenoord's overall Eredivisie record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Feyenoord arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Feyenoord in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Feyenoord, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 51% versus Feyenoord 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 62% | Feyenoord 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.27 xG and Feyenoord 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 1.058 / defence 1.052 | Feyenoord attack 1.194 / defence 0.691. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.349. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.691 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Fortuna Sittard games / 63 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 26% | Draw 29% | Feyenoord 45%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Feyenoord 2.22. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 70% | Feyenoord 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 26% | Draw 29% | Feyenoord 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.27 / Feyenoord 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 1.058 / def 1.052 | Feyenoord attack 1.194 / def 0.691 | league avg home 1.738 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Feyenoord xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Fortuna Sittard 0 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 26% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord?
Record (5 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 2 | Feyenoord 3W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.19x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
26%
3.78
29%
3.51
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.97
1.69
Feyenoord xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
5%
20.56
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.69 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 19W 14D 30L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Feyenoord's form line: 46W 13D 4L from 63 games, 2.40 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.27 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (12W 8D 11L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 23W 6D 2L from 31 away games — 2.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.49 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
Feyenoord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 19W 14D 30L in their last 63 games (1.13 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 46W 13D 4L in their last 63 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.42 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Fortuna Sittard or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Sittard have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-0 on 5 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Fortuna Sittard
3
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 0, Feyenoord have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 52%, Feyenoord 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Fortuna Sittard and 68% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 36%; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 64% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 68% of Feyenoord's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Fortuna Sittard 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Fortuna Sittard 0-1 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.27 xG and Feyenoord 1.69 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against Feyenoord attack 1.19 / defence 0.69, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 26% | Draw 29% | Feyenoord 45%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 62%, Feyenoord 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Feyenoord's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.