Fortuna Sittard 2-2 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Sparta Rotterdam (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fortuna Sittard face Sparta Rotterdam.

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Analysis & Preview

Sparta Rotterdam travel to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to take on Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortuna Sittard stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Fortuna Sittard have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Sparta Rotterdam — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Sparta Rotterdam's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sparta Rotterdam are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

Despite the home advantage, Sparta Rotterdam have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches against 1 for Fortuna Sittard.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Fortuna Sittard 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam — a draw.

Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Profile

Fortuna Sittard in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 54% versus Sparta Rotterdam 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 54% | Sparta Rotterdam 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.38 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.972 / defence 1.057 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.046 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.426. Data: built from Fortuna Sittard's last 55 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 55.

Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 34% | Draw 24% | Sparta Rotterdam 42%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.98 | Draw 4.11 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Sittard's last 10 home games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fortuna Sittard 70% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Rotterdam 30% (last 10 away games).

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