Feyenoord 1-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Feyenoord face AZ Alkmaar.

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Analysis

AZ Alkmaar make the trip to Stadion Feijenoord to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:45 UK time.

Form

Feyenoord (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 3.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

AZ Alkmaar have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, AZ Alkmaar have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.50 PPG for Feyenoord against 2.60 for AZ Alkmaar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Feyenoord edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2023, ended Feyenoord 2–1 AZ Alkmaar — a Feyenoord win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 59% versus AZ Alkmaar 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 64% | AZ Alkmaar 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.85 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.556 / defence 0.776 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.191 / defence 0.690. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.418. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack rating of 1.556 — their 1.85 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. AZ Alkmaar bring a tight defence (rating 0.690, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Feyenoord's projected output down. Feyenoord have a tight defence (rating 0.776), which is pulling AZ Alkmaar's projected output down. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 45 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 44.

Result probabilities: Feyenoord 48% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 25%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.10 | Draw 3.61 | AZ Alkmaar 4.04. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 60% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 40% (last 10 away games).

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