Excelsior 1-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to take on Excelsior. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's home record at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. AZ Alkmaar's 2.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Excelsior's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Excelsior, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 0–5 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 49% versus AZ Alkmaar 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 63% | AZ Alkmaar 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.09 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.940 / defence 1.201 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.307 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.365. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AZ Alkmaar have an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Excelsior games / 43 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 16% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 59%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | AZ Alkmaar 1.69. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.09 / 2.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 60% | AZ Alkmaar 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 16% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Excelsior 1.09 / AZ Alkmaar 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.940 / def 1.201 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.307 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
2.14
AZ Alkmaar xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Excelsior 1 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 16% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar in?
Excelsior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against AZ Alkmaar's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 2.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
16%
6.20
25%
4.00
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.24
2.14
AZ Alkmaar xG
6.20
16%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
12%
8.52
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
2%
52.77
20%
5.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.14 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Excelsior have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 11W 9D 23L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 28W 8D 7L from 43 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Excelsior.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 15W 2D 4L from 21 away games — 2.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.16 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 11W 9D 23L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 28W 8D 7L in their last 43 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.38 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Excelsior or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when AZ Alkmaar won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior
2
Draws
3
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Excelsior 1-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 52%, AZ Alkmaar 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Excelsior and 67% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 48%; Excelsior have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Excelsior's recent matches and 52% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Excelsior's matches and 67% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar finished level at 1-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.09 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.14 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.94 / defence 1.20 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.31 / defence 0.71, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 16% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 59%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 63%, AZ Alkmaar 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.