Waalwijk 1-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Waalwijk face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Waalwijk and Feyenoord meet at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 17:45 UK time.
Current Form
Waalwijk's record over their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Waalwijk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Feyenoord (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Feyenoord's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Feyenoord are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Feyenoord have the stronger record — 3 wins to Waalwijk's 0, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2023, ended Waalwijk 1–5 Feyenoord — a Feyenoord win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Feyenoord have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 95% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 54% versus Feyenoord 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 65% | Feyenoord 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Waalwijk surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Feyenoord have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 75% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.20 xG and Feyenoord 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.922 / defence 1.042 | Feyenoord attack 1.475 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.365. Feyenoord bring a tight defence (rating 0.796, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Waalwijk's projected output down. Feyenoord have an above-average attack rating of 1.475, which lifts their away xG to 2.10. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 43 games and Feyenoord's last 44.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 19% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 55%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 5.29 | Draw 3.90 | Feyenoord 1.80. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.20 / 2.10) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Feyenoord's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 50% (last 10 home games) | Feyenoord 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 11 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 19% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Waalwijk 1.20 / Feyenoord 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.922 / def 1.042 | Feyenoord attack 1.475 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Feyenoord xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs Feyenoord FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs Feyenoord kick off?
Waalwijk vs Feyenoord kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Waalwijk vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Feyenoord part of?
Waalwijk vs Feyenoord is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 11) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 19% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Waalwijk and Feyenoord will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waalwijk vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.92x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.48x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 43 games and Feyenoord's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
19%
5.29
26%
3.90
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.30
2.10
Feyenoord xG
5.29
19%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
12%
8.14
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
2%
43.10
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs Feyenoord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Waalwijk and 2.10 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 14W 8D 21L from 43 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, have gone 31W 9D 3L across 43 games — 2.37 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 11W 3D 7L from their last 21 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Waalwijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Feyenoord's away record stands at 15W 4D 2L across their last 21 away games, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.53 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
Waalwijk (Home) vs Feyenoord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Waalwijk vs Feyenoord Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 14W 8D 21L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 31W 9D 3L in their last 43 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.71 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 14 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won each of the latest 7 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won Feyenoord 5-1 Waalwijk on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 0D 4L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
1
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs Feyenoord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Feyenoord?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 0, Feyenoord have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Feyenoord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 May 2025: Feyenoord 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 62%, Feyenoord 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Waalwijk and 67% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs Feyenoord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and Feyenoord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Waalwijk's games and 67% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waalwijk and Feyenoord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Waalwijk's matches and 67% of Feyenoord's.
Do Waalwijk and Feyenoord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 95% of Feyenoord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.20 xG and Feyenoord 2.10 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Feyenoord attack 1.48 / defence 0.80, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 19% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 55%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 65%, Feyenoord 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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