FC Volendam 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Sparta Rotterdam in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.20 for Sparta Rotterdam. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sparta Rotterdam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Volendam lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 2–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sparta Rotterdam half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 64% versus Sparta Rotterdam 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 69% | Sparta Rotterdam 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.31 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.972 / defence 1.028 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.964 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.386. Sparta Rotterdam's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 FC Volendam games / 45 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 33% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Sparta Rotterdam 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 33% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Volendam 1.31 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.972 / def 1.028 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.964 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam?
FC Volendam 1 - 4 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 33% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Volendam and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and Sparta Rotterdam in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.97) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (0.96x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
33%
3.06
32%
3.15
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.69
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.37 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 12W 8D 25L from 45 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 13L across 45 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Rotterdam by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 11W 2D 9L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 9W 6D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.62 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 12W 8D 25L in their last 45 games (0.98 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 21W 11D 13L in their last 45 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.59 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.50 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Rotterdam go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 on 3 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
0
Draws
5
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 68%, Sparta Rotterdam 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Volendam and 64% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 36%; Sparta Rotterdam in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Sparta Rotterdam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of FC Volendam's games and 46% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Volendam's matches and 64% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do FC Volendam and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Rotterdam run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat FC Volendam 1-4 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.31 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.37 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 1.37 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.96 / defence 0.79, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 33% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 36%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 69%, Sparta Rotterdam 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Rotterdam arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.