Excelsior 2-4 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Feyenoord at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Excelsior welcome Feyenoord to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Excelsior have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Excelsior have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Feyenoord stand at 9W 0D 1L — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Feyenoord away from home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Excelsior's games and 60% of Feyenoord's (from Excelsior's last 10 home games and Feyenoord's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Excelsior, 2 for Feyenoord and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended Excelsior 0–2 Feyenoord — a Feyenoord win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 50% versus Feyenoord 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 61% | Feyenoord 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Excelsior surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Feyenoord have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 75% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.24 xG and Feyenoord 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.926 / defence 1.099 | Feyenoord attack 1.401 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.407. Feyenoord bring a tight defence (rating 0.778, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Excelsior's projected output down. Feyenoord have an above-average attack rating of 1.401, which lifts their away xG to 2.17. Data: built from Excelsior's last 46 games and Feyenoord's last 46.
Result probabilities: Excelsior 19% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 57%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 5.19 | Draw 4.17 | Feyenoord 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.24 / 2.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Excelsior's last 10 home games and Feyenoord's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Excelsior 60% (last 10 home games) | Feyenoord 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 13 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 19% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Excelsior 1.24 / Feyenoord 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.926 / def 1.099 | Feyenoord attack 1.401 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Feyenoord xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Excelsior vs Feyenoord FAQs
What time does Excelsior vs Feyenoord kick off?
Excelsior vs Feyenoord kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Excelsior 2 - 4 Feyenoord.
Where is Excelsior vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Feyenoord part of?
Excelsior vs Feyenoord is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 13) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 19% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Excelsior and Feyenoord will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Excelsior vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Excelsior's last 46 games and Feyenoord's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
19%
5.19
24%
4.17
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.40
2.17
Feyenoord xG
5.19
19%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
11%
8.72
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
2%
45.27
16%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Excelsior vs Feyenoord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.17 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 11D 23L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.41 PPG from 46 outings (34W 9D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.39 PPG clear of Excelsior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Excelsior's home form reads 9W 6D 8L across their last 23 home games, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.39 points per game from their last 23 away games (17W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.54 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
Excelsior (Home) vs Feyenoord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Excelsior
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Excelsior vs Feyenoord Form FAQs
What form are Excelsior and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 12W 11D 23L in their last 46 games (1.02 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 34W 9D 3L in their last 46 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.43 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.39 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Feyenoord have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Nov 2022, when Feyenoord won Feyenoord 5-1 Excelsior.
Excelsior's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Excelsior
0
Draws
6
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Excelsior vs Feyenoord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Feyenoord?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Excelsior have won 0, Feyenoord have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Feyenoord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Feyenoord 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 56%, Feyenoord 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Excelsior and 70% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 30%; Excelsior have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Excelsior vs Feyenoord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Excelsior and Feyenoord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Excelsior's games and 70% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Excelsior and Feyenoord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Excelsior's matches and 70% of Feyenoord's.
Do Excelsior and Feyenoord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Excelsior's recent matches and 96% of Feyenoord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Excelsior 2-4 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.24 xG and Feyenoord 2.17 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Feyenoord outscored their 2.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Feyenoord attack 1.40 / defence 0.78, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 19% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 57%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 61%, Feyenoord 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eredivisie fixtures — matchday 13
All Eredivisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →