🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus GO Ahead Eagles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 1 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

FC Volendam have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.

GO Ahead Eagles's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.

GO Ahead Eagles's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for FC Volendam, 1.10 for GO Ahead Eagles — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, GO Ahead Eagles in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 5 meetings, GO Ahead Eagles have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to FC Volendam's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with GO Ahead Eagles winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. GO Ahead Eagles have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

GO Ahead Eagles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 62% and GO Ahead Eagles 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 72% | GO Ahead Eagles 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.75 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.890 / defence 1.008 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.998 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.424. Data: 20 FC Volendam games / 53 GO Ahead Eagles games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Volendam 45% | Draw 23% | GO Ahead Eagles 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | GO Ahead Eagles 3.12. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | GO Ahead Eagles 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights