Willem II 0-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Willem II face ADO Den Haag.

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Fixture Analysis

Willem II welcome ADO Den Haag to Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 22). Kick-off is Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Willem II have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Willem II at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

ADO Den Haag — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

ADO Den Haag away from home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Willem II) versus 1.60 (ADO Den Haag). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Willem II have won 3, ADO Den Haag 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2025, ended Willem II 1–5 ADO Den Haag — a ADO Den Haag win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Willem II in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 62% and ADO Den Haag 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | ADO Den Haag 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Willem II surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while ADO Den Haag have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.30 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.949 / defence 0.804 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.441 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.460. ADO Den Haag have an above-average attack rating of 1.441, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Data: built from Willem II's last 27 games and ADO Den Haag's last 65.

Result probabilities: Willem II 29% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 46%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.50 | Draw 3.86 | ADO Den Haag 2.20. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.30 / 1.69) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and ADO Den Haag's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 60% (last 10 home games) | ADO Den Haag 50% (last 10 away games).

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