Waalwijk 0-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Willem II (43%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Waalwijk face Willem II.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie (Quarter-finals). Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 18:45 UK time.

Current Form

Waalwijk's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Waalwijk at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Willem II have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Willem II's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) — Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Willem II in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head sample leans to Willem II, who have 5 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Feb 2026, ended Waalwijk 1–2 Willem II — a Willem II win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Willem II have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 69% and Willem II 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 68% | Willem II 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.55 xG and Willem II 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.202 / defence 1.027 | Willem II attack 1.194 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.421. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.786, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Waalwijk's projected output down. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 38 games and Willem II's last 38.

Result probabilities: Waalwijk 35% | Draw 23% | Willem II 43%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.90 | Draw 4.36 | Willem II 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.74) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 80% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights