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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Quarter-finals. Kick-off: Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 17:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Almere City FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Almere City FC, 1.50 for De Graafschap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 2–0 with Almere City FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 54% versus De Graafschap 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 62% | De Graafschap 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.88 xG and De Graafschap 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.153 / defence 1.033 | De Graafschap attack 1.148 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.421. Data: 38 Almere City FC games / 76 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Almere City FC 43% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 35%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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