Waalwijk 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Round of 16 as Waalwijk welcome Roda to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 5W 2D 3L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Roda away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Waalwijk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Waalwijk have won 1, Roda 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Roda trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 68% and Roda 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 68% | Roda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.69 xG and Roda 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.206 / defence 1.025 | Roda attack 1.132 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.422. Data: 38 Waalwijk games / 76 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 23% | Roda 38%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Roda 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Roda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Round of 16 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 23% | Roda 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Waalwijk 1.69 / Roda 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.206 / def 1.025 | Roda attack 1.132 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Roda xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Roda kick off?
Waalwijk vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Roda?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is Waalwijk vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Roda part of?
Waalwijk vs Roda is a Round of 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 39% chance of winning, Roda a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Waalwijk and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Roda?
Record (3 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 1 | Roda 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Roda in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Roda (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.21) and Roda's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
39%
2.53
23%
4.37
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.34
1.65
Roda xG
2.53
39%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
8%
13.20
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.65 for Roda, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 22W 18D 33L from 73 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 27W 22D 24L across 73 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.15 PPG, Roda on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 14W 7D 15L from 36 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 14W 10D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.45 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Roda in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 22W 18D 33L in their last 73 games (1.15 PPG), while Roda have gone 27W 22D 24L in their last 73 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.36 PPG; Roda away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Roda runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Waalwijk won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Roda specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
2
Draws
1
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Roda?
From 4 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Roda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Waalwijk 1-1 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 64%, Roda at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Waalwijk and 69% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Waalwijk's games and 69% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Waalwijk's matches and 69% of Roda's.
Do Waalwijk and Roda tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Roda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Round of 16, as Waalwijk and Roda drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.69 xG and Roda 1.65 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.21 / defence 1.02 against Roda attack 1.13 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 39% | Draw 23% | Roda 38%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 68%, Roda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.15 PPG, Roda 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.