🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

De Vijverberg plays host to De Graafschap versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Quarter-finals. Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

De Graafschap have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Almere City FC's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Almere City FC are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Almere City FC in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Almere City FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

De Graafschap — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Almere City FC — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 64% versus Almere City FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 63% | Almere City FC 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.55 xG and Almere City FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.259 / defence 0.976 | Almere City FC attack 1.149 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.421. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 76 De Graafschap games / 38 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 58% | Draw 18% | Almere City FC 23%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.72 | Draw 5.56 | Almere City FC 4.35. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.15. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.15 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.15 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Almere City FC 90% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights