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Poisson model favours Willem II (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dordrecht face Willem II.

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Analysis

Willem II make the trip to M-Scores Stadion to face Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Dordrecht (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Willem II have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Willem II are 1.50 PPG clear of Dordrecht in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Willem II hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Willem II winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Willem II have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 55% versus Willem II 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | Willem II 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.06 xG and Willem II 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.838 / defence 0.960 | Willem II attack 1.169 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.448. Willem II's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 75 Dordrecht games / 37 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dordrecht 25% | Draw 25% | Willem II 51%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 1.96. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 50% | Willem II 50%.

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