Waalwijk 4-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Waalwijk at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.

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Analysis

Jong PSV U21 make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 38). The match kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form

Waalwijk (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Waalwijk have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Jong PSV U21's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Jong PSV U21 have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Waalwijk. A 0.50 PPG lead over Jong PSV U21 (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Waalwijk, 1 for Jong PSV U21 and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2025, ended Waalwijk 1–3 Jong PSV U21 — a Jong PSV U21 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 68% and Jong PSV U21 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 69% | Jong PSV U21 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.82 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.095 / defence 1.046 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.015 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.448. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 37 games and Jong PSV U21's last 75.

Result probabilities: Waalwijk 45% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 33%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.24 | Draw 4.43 | Jong PSV U21 3.05. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.82 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Jong PSV U21's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 70% (last 10 home games) | Jong PSV U21 50% (last 10 away games).

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