Jong PSV U21 3-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees FC Volendam travel to De Herdgang to take on Jong PSV U21. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Jong PSV U21 haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 4W 1D 5L at De Herdgang — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
FC Volendam — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong PSV U21 1.00 PPG, FC Volendam 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC Volendam have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Jong PSV U21.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2025, ended 0–4 with FC Volendam winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Volendam have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC Volendam trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 61% and FC Volendam 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 67% | FC Volendam 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.78 xG and FC Volendam 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.955 / defence 0.975 | FC Volendam attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.433. Data: 38 Jong PSV U21 games / 0 FC Volendam games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 51% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 25%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | FC Volendam 4.00. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong PSV U21 50% | FC Volendam 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 10 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 51% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.78 / FC Volendam 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.955 / def 0.975 | FC Volendam attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.19
FC Volendam xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 10 August 2026 at De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 51% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 3W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.95) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.16
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.97
1.19
FC Volendam xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
4%
23.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.19 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 15W 5D 16L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. Jong PSV U21 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
FC Volendam's form line: 9W 8D 19L from 36 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. FC Volendam haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Jong PSV U21 are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 3W 3D 12L from 18 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.06 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Pre-Season
FC Volendam
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 15W 5D 16L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 9W 8D 19L in their last 36 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or FC Volendam away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2025, when FC Volendam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam?
From 5 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Jong PSV U21 3-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 50%, FC Volendam 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Jong PSV U21) and 56% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 44% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 56% of FC Volendam's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong PSV U21 edge out FC Volendam 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat FC Volendam 3-2 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.78 xG and FC Volendam 1.19 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against FC Volendam attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 51% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 25%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 67%, FC Volendam 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong PSV U21 arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.