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Poisson model rates Roda at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Roda make the trip to AFAS Trainingscomplex to face Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 1W 2D 7L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Roda have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Roda away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Roda are 0.50 PPG clear of Jong AZ in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jong AZ register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Roda in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Jong AZ 4W, Roda 3W, 2D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with Jong AZ winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Jong AZ — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

Roda — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 64% and Roda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 69% | Roda 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.07 xG and Roda 2.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.817 / defence 1.295 | Roda attack 1.262 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.448. Roda's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Roda have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 2.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 75 Jong AZ games / 75 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jong AZ 16% | Draw 18% | Roda 66%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 6.25 | Draw 5.56 | Roda 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Roda (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.07 / 2.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 70% | Roda 80% BTTS from recent games.

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