🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Waalwijk at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Waalwijk encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Eerste Divisie encounter, Round of 16 sees Waalwijk travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 April 2026, 17:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Roda — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

On the road, Waalwijk have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Waalwijk are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Roda, 1 for Waalwijk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Roda winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Roda in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Waalwijk in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 58% and Waalwijk 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 58% | Waalwijk 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.39 xG and Waalwijk 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.755 / defence 1.075 | Waalwijk attack 1.176 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.422. Roda's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 76 Roda games / 38 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Roda 30% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 47%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 2.13. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights