PEC Zwolle 2-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 81%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 17 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 8W 1D 1L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
NAC Breda (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, NAC Breda have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for PEC Zwolle, 1.90 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, NAC Breda in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: PEC Zwolle 1W, NAC Breda 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with PEC Zwolle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 48% versus NAC Breda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 51% | NAC Breda 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 3.80 xG and NAC Breda 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.797 / defence 0.939 | NAC Breda attack 1.089 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.311. PEC Zwolle carry an above-average attack strength of 1.797 — their λ of 3.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 PEC Zwolle games / 67 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 81% | Draw 10% | NAC Breda 9%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.23 | Draw 10.00 | NAC Breda 11.11. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (81%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 89% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 5.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 89% — a total xG of 5.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (3.80 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 5.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 89% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 60% | NAC Breda 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 81% | Draw 10% | NAC Breda 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 89% | BTTS 72% | xG PEC Zwolle 3.80 / NAC Breda 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.797 / def 0.939 | NAC Breda attack 1.089 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.80
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.34
NAC Breda xG
72%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
75%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 March 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda part of?
PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 81% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 9% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 89%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (1.80x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.80. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.09x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 7.2%. Close behind: 4-1 (6.8%), 2-1 (5.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
81%
1.23
10%
9.65
9%
11.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 1
6.8%
Home win
2 – 1
5.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.80
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
5.14
1.34
NAC Breda xG
1.23
81%
Home win
9.65
10%
Draw
11.55
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
89%
Over 2.5
1.12
11%
Under 2.5
9.09
75%
Over 3.5
1.33
25%
Under 3.5
4.00
58%
Over 4.5
1.72
42%
Under 4.5
2.38
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
2%
44.70
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 3.80 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.34 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 5.14.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 63 games, going 28W 9D 26L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.52 PPG from 63 outings (28W 12D 23L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.52 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 13W 7D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (11W 4D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.60 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 62%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 28W 9D 26L in their last 63 games (1.48 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 28W 12D 23L in their last 63 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or NAC Breda away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.53 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 4, NAC Breda have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 2-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for PEC Zwolle, 67% for NAC Breda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for PEC Zwolle and 77% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of PEC Zwolle's games and 67% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 77% of NAC Breda's.
Do PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat NAC Breda 2-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 3.80 xG and NAC Breda 1.34 xG, a combined 5.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.8 short of their projected output. NAC Breda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.80 / defence 0.94 against NAC Breda attack 1.09 / defence 1.20, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 81% | Draw 10% | NAC Breda 9%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 81%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 89%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 75% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 51%, NAC Breda 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.48 PPG, NAC Breda 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.