Roda 0-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Willem II at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Willem II encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Willem II travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda in Eerste Divisie (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Roda — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Roda's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Across their last 10 games, Willem II have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Willem II's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Roda's games and 60% of Willem II's (from Roda's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Roda, 2 for Willem II and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Roda 2–1 Willem II — a Roda win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Roda in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Willem II in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 60% versus Willem II 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 58% | Willem II 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.00 xG and Willem II 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.773 / defence 1.048 | Willem II attack 1.217 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.528. Roda's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Willem II have an above-average attack rating of 1.217, which lifts their away xG to 1.95. Data: built from Roda's last 72 games and Willem II's last 34.

Result probabilities: Roda 19% | Draw 22% | Willem II 60%. Fair-value odds: Roda 5.31 | Draw 4.62 | Willem II 1.68. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Roda's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Roda 60% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 60% (last 10 away games).

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