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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Jong AZ travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 15:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 1D 4L at De Vijverberg — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.80 PPG, Jong AZ 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

De Graafschap hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Jong AZ, with 2 draws in between.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with De Graafschap winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 65% and Jong AZ 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 62% | Jong AZ 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.92 xG and Jong AZ 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.107 / defence 1.097 | Jong AZ attack 1.311 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.528. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — the away xG of 2.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 De Graafschap games / 72 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 35% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 45%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.86 | Draw 5.00 | Jong AZ 2.22. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 4.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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