Helmond Sport 2-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Waalwijk travel to GS Staalwerken Stadion to take on Helmond Sport. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Helmond Sport's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at GS Staalwerken Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Waalwijk — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Waalwijk are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Helmond Sport, 0 for Waalwijk and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Helmond Sport 63% and Waalwijk 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 62% | Waalwijk 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.31 xG and Waalwijk 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.888 / defence 0.960 | Waalwijk attack 1.157 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.523. Data: 72 Helmond Sport games / 34 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 30% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 47%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 2.13. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 70% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 30% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Helmond Sport 1.31 / Waalwijk 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.888 / def 0.960 | Waalwijk attack 1.157 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Waalwijk xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk kicked off at 11:15 on Monday 6 April 2026 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Helmond Sport 2 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk part of?
Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 30% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Helmond Sport and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): Helmond Sport 0W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Helmond Sport and Waalwijk in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.89) and Waalwijk's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
30%
3.37
24%
4.20
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.00
1.69
Waalwijk xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
18%
5.43
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
5%
18.30
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.69 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Helmond Sport have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 19W 15D 34L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Waalwijk's form line: 20W 16D 32L from 68 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 1.06 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Helmond Sport have posted 1.41 PPG from 34 outings (13W 9D 12L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 8W 9D 17L from 34 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.51 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 68%.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 19W 15D 34L in their last 68 games (1.06 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 20W 16D 32L in their last 68 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Waalwijk away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.41 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helmond Sport and Waalwijk runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Helmond Sport
3
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Waalwijk?
From 3 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 0, Waalwijk have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Helmond Sport at 68%, Waalwijk at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Helmond Sport and 68% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Helmond Sport's games and 71% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Helmond Sport's matches and 68% of Waalwijk's.
Do Helmond Sport and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport and Waalwijk finished level at 2-2 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.31 xG and Waalwijk 1.69 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Waalwijk attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 30% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 47%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 62%, Waalwijk 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.06 PPG, Waalwijk 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.