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Poisson rates Cambuur at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Dordrecht encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 35 as Cambuur welcome Dordrecht to Kooi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cambuur's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Kooi Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Cambuur carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Cambuur have won 1, Dordrecht 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Dordrecht winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Cambuur in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Dordrecht in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 53% versus Dordrecht 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 51% | Dordrecht 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.93 xG and Dordrecht 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.198 / defence 0.885 | Dordrecht attack 0.838 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.528. Data: 72 Cambuur games / 72 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cambuur 56% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 22%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Dordrecht 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Dordrecht lead the H2H ledger, but Cambuur carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.

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