Almere City FC 1-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Almere City FC (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Almere City FC face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Jong Utrecht travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 April 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Almere City FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Jong Utrecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 0 for Jong Utrecht and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 53% versus Jong Utrecht 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 59% | Jong Utrecht 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.68 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.925 / defence 1.035 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.787 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.331. Data: 68 Almere City FC games / 68 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 51% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 25%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Utrecht 4.00. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 80% | Jong Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 3 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 51% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Almere City FC 1.68 / Jong Utrecht 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.925 / def 1.035 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.787 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Jong Utrecht xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 3 April 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht?
Almere City FC 1 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 51% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Almere City FC 2W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.93) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.13
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.76
1.08
Jong Utrecht xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
5%
21.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.08 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almere City FC come into this having played 68 games, going 27W 13D 28L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.85 PPG from 68 outings (16W 10D 42L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Almere City FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Almere City FC's home form reads 12W 7D 14L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.91 points per game from 33 outings (8W 6D 19L).
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.03 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 27W 13D 28L in their last 68 games (1.38 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 16W 10D 42L in their last 68 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.30 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Almere City FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2025, when Almere City FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Almere City FC
1
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Jong Utrecht 2-3 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 52%, Jong Utrecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Almere City FC and 67% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Almere City FC's games and 67% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Almere City FC's matches and 67% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Almere City FC and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out Jong Utrecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Jong Utrecht 1-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.68 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.08 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong Utrecht landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 51% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 25%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 59%, Jong Utrecht 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.