ADO Den Haag 3-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates NAC Breda at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as ADO Den Haag welcome NAC Breda to Bingoal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's home record at Bingoal Stadion: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NAC Breda — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ADO Den Haag register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, NAC Breda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
ADO Den Haag hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for NAC Breda, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with ADO Den Haag winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both ADO Den Haag and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 64% and NAC Breda 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 62% | NAC Breda 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.74 xG and NAC Breda 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.243 / defence 0.997 | NAC Breda attack 1.424 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.369. NAC Breda have an above-average attack strength of 1.424 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 ADO Den Haag games / 56 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 34% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 42%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
ADO Den Haag dominate the H2H record, yet NAC Breda are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 80% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 34% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.74 / NAC Breda 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.243 / def 0.997 | NAC Breda attack 1.424 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.94
NAC Breda xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 December 2023 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
ADO Den Haag 3 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda part of?
ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 34% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda?
Record (6 meetings): ADO Den Haag 5W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.24) and NAC Breda's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
34%
2.94
24%
4.22
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.68
1.94
NAC Breda xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
14%
6.98
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
5%
20.50
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.94 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 21W 19D 16L from 56 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 26W 9D 21L across 56 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ADO Den Haag on 1.46 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 9W 9D 9L from 27 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 12W 3D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.77 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 71%.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 21W 19D 16L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 26W 9D 21L in their last 56 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.33 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when NAC Breda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 6, NAC Breda have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when NAC Breda 2-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ADO Den Haag at 70%, NAC Breda at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for ADO Den Haag and 78% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of ADO Den Haag's games and 70% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 78% of NAC Breda's.
Do ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat NAC Breda 3-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.74 xG and NAC Breda 1.94 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NAC Breda landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.24 / defence 1.00 against NAC Breda attack 1.42 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 34% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 42%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 62%, NAC Breda 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.46 PPG, NAC Breda 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.