NAC Breda 2-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours NAC Breda (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as NAC Breda face FC OSS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC OSS make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 8 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in NAC Breda's favour (2.10 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours NAC Breda, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against FC OSS — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with NAC Breda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both NAC Breda and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 73% versus FC OSS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 67% | FC OSS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.36 xG and FC OSS 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.951 / defence 1.040 | FC OSS attack 0.553 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.376. Data: 55 NAC Breda games / 55 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 49% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 21%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | FC OSS 4.76. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: NAC Breda 80% | FC OSS 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 49% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG NAC Breda 1.36 / FC OSS 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.951 / def 1.040 | FC OSS attack 0.553 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.79
FC OSS xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs FC OSS kick off?
NAC Breda vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 December 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
NAC Breda 2 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is NAC Breda vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs FC OSS part of?
NAC Breda vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 49% chance of winning, FC OSS a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both NAC Breda and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC OSS?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 4W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and FC OSS in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.95x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.55x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.33
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.15
0.79
FC OSS xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.79 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 25W 9D 21L from 55 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 34L across 55 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours NAC Breda by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC OSS heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 13W 5D 9L from 27 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 4W 6D 17L across 27 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.00 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and FC OSS in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 25W 9D 21L in their last 55 games (1.53 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 9D 34L in their last 55 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or FC OSS away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.63 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 3-0 on 29 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NAC Breda
1
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC OSS?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 5, FC OSS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when FC OSS 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and FC OSS?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 74%, FC OSS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (NAC Breda) and 52% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of NAC Breda's games and 48% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of NAC Breda's matches and 52% of FC OSS's.
Do NAC Breda and FC OSS tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat FC OSS 2-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.36 xG and FC OSS 0.79 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against FC OSS attack 0.55 / defence 0.91, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 49% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 21%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 67%, FC OSS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.