VVV Venlo 3-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VVV Venlo host Dordrecht at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VVV Venlo — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Dordrecht have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Dordrecht's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of VVV Venlo's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, VVV Venlo have won 3, Dordrecht 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with VVV Venlo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VVV Venlo 71% and Dordrecht 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 58% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.44 xG and Dordrecht 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.950 / defence 1.202 | Dordrecht attack 1.032 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.376. Data: 55 VVV Venlo games / 55 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 32% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 43%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Dordrecht 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
VVV Venlo dominate the H2H record, yet Dordrecht are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 80% | Dordrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 8 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 32% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG VVV Venlo 1.44 / Dordrecht 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.950 / def 1.202 | Dordrecht attack 1.032 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Dordrecht xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 December 2023 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
VVV Venlo 3 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht part of?
VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 32% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both VVV Venlo and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Dordrecht?
Record (4 meetings): VVV Venlo 3W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Dordrecht in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
32%
3.16
25%
3.98
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
3.15
1.71
Dordrecht xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
6%
17.42
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.71 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VVV Venlo's recent record stands at 20W 18D 17L from 55 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 15W 17D 23L across 55 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.42 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VVV Venlo have managed 8W 9D 9L from 26 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 5W 8D 13L across 26 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.40 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 20W 18D 17L in their last 55 games (1.42 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 15W 17D 23L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Dordrecht away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.27 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VVV Venlo and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when Dordrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
0
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 5, Dordrecht have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Dordrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VVV Venlo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VVV Venlo at 69%, Dordrecht at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (VVV Venlo) and 50% (Dordrecht).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of VVV Venlo's games and 65% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of VVV Venlo's recent games and 50% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VVV Venlo and Dordrecht tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Dordrecht 3-1 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.44 xG and Dordrecht 1.71 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.95 / defence 1.20 against Dordrecht attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 32% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 43%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 58%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.42 PPG, Dordrecht 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.