Jong AZ 0-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Den Bosch travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 December 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Jong AZ have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Jong AZ are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 1, Den Bosch 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 3–1 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 58% versus Den Bosch 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 62% | Den Bosch 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.04 xG and Den Bosch 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.055 / defence 1.100 | Den Bosch attack 0.762 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.376. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Jong AZ games / 55 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 57% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 20%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Den Bosch 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Jong AZ 30% | Den Bosch 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 11 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 57% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Jong AZ 2.04 / Den Bosch 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.055 / def 1.100 | Den Bosch attack 0.762 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Den Bosch xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 11 December 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Jong AZ 0 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 57% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong AZ and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
Record (4 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and Den Bosch in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (1.05) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.33
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.20
1.15
Den Bosch xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
3%
38.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.15 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 12D 22L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 0.84 PPG from 55 outings (13W 7D 35L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 13W 8D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 0.52 points per game from 27 outings (4W 2D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.18 scored and 2.18 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 13W 7D 35L in their last 55 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.74 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Den Bosch won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
5
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, Den Bosch have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Jong AZ 2-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 56%, Den Bosch 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Jong AZ) and 63% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 44% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Jong AZ's matches and 63% of Den Bosch's.
Do Jong AZ and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jong AZ's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ and Den Bosch finished level at 0-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.04 xG and Den Bosch 1.15 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against Den Bosch attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 57% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 20%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 62%, Den Bosch 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Den Bosch's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.