Groningen 2-0 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Groningen face Telstar.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Groningen welcome Telstar to Euroborg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 8 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Groningen — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Groningen have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Telstar have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Telstar's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Groningen) versus 1.30 (Telstar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Telstar in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 51% versus Telstar 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 61% | Telstar 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.47 xG and Telstar 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.947 / defence 0.938 | Telstar attack 0.789 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.376. Telstar's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Groningen's last 17 games and Telstar's last 55.
Result probabilities: Groningen 47% | Draw 28% | Telstar 25%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.15 | Draw 3.54 | Telstar 3.97. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Groningen 40% (last 10 home games) | Telstar 50% (last 10 away games).
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 18 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 8 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 47% | Draw 28% | Telstar 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Groningen 1.47 / Telstar 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.947 / def 0.938 | Telstar attack 0.789 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Groningen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Telstar xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs Telstar FAQs
What time does Groningen vs Telstar kick off?
Groningen vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 8 December 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Telstar?
Groningen 2 - 0 Telstar.
Where is Groningen vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Telstar part of?
Groningen vs Telstar is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 18) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 47% chance of winning, Telstar a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Groningen and Telstar will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Groningen vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Groningen's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 17 games and Telstar's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.54
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.49
1.02
Telstar xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs Telstar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Groningen and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Groningen and 1.02 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Groningen come into this having played 51 games, going 11W 10D 30L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Telstar sit at 1.24 PPG from 51 outings (17W 12D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Telstar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Groningen's home form reads 7W 6D 13L across their last 26 home games, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Telstar have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 26 away games (7W 7D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.04 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Telstar
Blended
Groningen (Home) vs Telstar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Groningen vs Telstar Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and Telstar in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 11W 10D 30L in their last 51 games (0.84 PPG), while Telstar have gone 17W 12D 22L in their last 51 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Telstar away?
Telstar's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.04 PPG; Telstar away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Groningen have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Groningen's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Groningen
1
Draws
0
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs Telstar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Telstar?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 3, Telstar have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Groningen and Telstar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Telstar 0-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Telstar?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 50%, Telstar 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Groningen) and 42% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Telstar in 31%; Groningen have failed to score in 38% of games; Telstar in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs Telstar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and Telstar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Groningen's recent matches and 42% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Groningen and Telstar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Groningen's recent games and 42% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Telstar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Groningen's recent matches and 65% of Telstar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Telstar 2-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.47 xG and Telstar 1.02 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Telstar landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Telstar attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 47% | Draw 28% | Telstar 25%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 61%, Telstar 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Telstar's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Telstar arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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