NAC Breda 1-4 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dordrecht at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 34). Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, NAC Breda have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dordrecht (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Dordrecht away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dordrecht are 0.80 PPG clear of NAC Breda over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) — NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dordrecht in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for NAC Breda, 2 for Dordrecht and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2023, ended NAC Breda 2–2 Dordrecht — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 72% and Dordrecht 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 65% | Dordrecht 59%). Note also that Dordrecht surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while NAC Breda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.39 xG and Dordrecht 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.879 / defence 0.983 | Dordrecht attack 1.180 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.341. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 71 games and Dordrecht's last 71.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 33% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 41%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.02 | Draw 3.80 | Dordrecht 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.39 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 60% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 34 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 33% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG NAC Breda 1.39 / Dordrecht 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.879 / def 0.983 | Dordrecht attack 1.180 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Dordrecht xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NAC Breda vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does NAC Breda vs Dordrecht kick off?
NAC Breda vs Dordrecht kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 12 April 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
NAC Breda 1 - 4 Dordrecht.
Where is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht part of?
NAC Breda vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 34) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 33% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both NAC Breda and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NAC Breda vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.88x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (1.18x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from NAC Breda's last 71 games and Dordrecht's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
33%
3.02
26%
3.80
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.94
1.56
Dordrecht xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NAC Breda vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.56 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda come into this having played 71 games, going 31W 13D 27L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.34 PPG from 71 outings (25W 20D 26L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.34 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
NAC Breda's home form reads 16W 7D 12L across their last 35 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 35 away games (9W 10D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.45 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
NAC Breda (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NAC Breda
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ NAC Breda vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are NAC Breda and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 31W 13D 27L in their last 71 games (1.49 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 25W 20D 26L in their last 71 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Dordrecht away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.57 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between NAC Breda and Dordrecht, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won Dordrecht 0-3 NAC Breda on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
2
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ NAC Breda vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, NAC Breda have won 2, Dordrecht have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Dordrecht 0-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for NAC Breda, 66% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (NAC Breda) and 57% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NAC Breda vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NAC Breda and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of NAC Breda's games and 66% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NAC Breda and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of NAC Breda's matches and 57% of Dordrecht's.
Do NAC Breda and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 80% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 1-4 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat NAC Breda 1-4 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.39 xG and Dordrecht 1.56 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Dordrecht outscored their 1.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Dordrecht attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 33% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 41%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 65%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.49 PPG, Dordrecht 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eerste Divisie fixtures — matchday 34
All Eerste Divisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →