Jong AZ 0-5 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and Groningen meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong AZ (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Jong AZ have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Groningen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Groningen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Jong AZ. A 0.50 PPG lead over Groningen (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 59% versus Groningen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 59% | Groningen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.83 xG and Groningen 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.199 / defence 0.789 | Groningen attack 0.843 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.387. Jong AZ's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Jong AZ games / 15 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 58% | Draw 24% | Groningen 18%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Groningen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 40% | Groningen 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 27 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 58% | Draw 24% | Groningen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Jong AZ 1.83 / Groningen 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.199 / def 0.789 | Groningen attack 0.843 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Groningen xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Groningen kick off?
Jong AZ vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 November 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Groningen?
Jong AZ 0 - 5 Groningen.
Where is Jong AZ vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Groningen part of?
Jong AZ vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 58% chance of winning, Groningen a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jong AZ and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and Groningen in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Groningen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.84x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.21
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.75
0.92
Groningen xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
3%
34.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Jong AZ and 0.92 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong AZ come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 12D 19L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Groningen sit at 0.76 PPG from 49 outings (9W 10D 30L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong AZ's home form reads 11W 8D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Groningen have taken 0.54 points per game from 24 outings (3W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.04 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Groningen in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Groningen have gone 9W 10D 30L in their last 49 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Groningen away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.71 PPG; Groningen away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jong AZ
0
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Groningen?
From 2 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 0, Groningen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when Groningen 4-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Groningen see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 54%, Groningen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jong AZ) and 58% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Groningen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 54% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jong AZ's recent games and 58% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Groningen tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Groningen in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Jong AZ 0-5 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.83 xG and Groningen 0.92 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Groningen outscored their 0.92 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.20 / defence 0.79 against Groningen attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 58% | Draw 24% | Groningen 18%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Groningen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 59%, Groningen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Groningen's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.