Jong AZ 0-5 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and Groningen meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Jong AZ (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Jong AZ have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Groningen's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Groningen have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Jong AZ. A 0.50 PPG lead over Groningen (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 59% versus Groningen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 59% | Groningen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.83 xG and Groningen 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.199 / defence 0.789 | Groningen attack 0.843 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.387. Jong AZ have a tight defence (rating 0.789), which is pulling Groningen's projected output down. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 53 games and Groningen's last 15.
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 58% | Draw 24% | Groningen 18%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.72 | Draw 4.21 | Groningen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong AZ's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 40% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 15 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 27 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 58% | Draw 24% | Groningen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Jong AZ 1.83 / Groningen 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.199 / def 0.789 | Groningen attack 0.843 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Groningen xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong AZ vs Groningen FAQs
What time does Jong AZ vs Groningen kick off?
Jong AZ vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 27 November 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Groningen?
Jong AZ 0 - 5 Groningen.
Where is Jong AZ vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Groningen part of?
Jong AZ vs Groningen is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 15) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 58% chance of winning, Groningen a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jong AZ and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong AZ vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.84x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Jong AZ's last 53 games and Groningen's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.21
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.75
0.92
Groningen xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
3%
34.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong AZ vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Jong AZ and 0.92 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong AZ come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 12D 19L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Groningen sit at 0.76 PPG from 49 outings (9W 10D 30L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong AZ's home form reads 11W 8D 5L across their last 24 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Groningen have taken 0.54 points per game from their last 24 away games (3W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.04 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Groningen
Blended
Jong AZ (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong AZ
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Jong AZ vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are Jong AZ and Groningen in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Groningen have gone 9W 10D 30L in their last 49 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Groningen away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.71 PPG; Groningen away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Jong AZ and Groningen, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 26 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jong AZ
0
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong AZ vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Groningen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong AZ have won 0, Groningen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 January 2024: Groningen 4-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Groningen see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 54%, Groningen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jong AZ) and 58% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Groningen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong AZ vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong AZ and Groningen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 54% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jong AZ and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jong AZ's recent games and 58% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Groningen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 58% of Groningen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Jong AZ 0-5 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.83 xG and Groningen 0.92 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Groningen outscored their 0.92 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.20 / defence 0.79 against Groningen attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 58% | Draw 24% | Groningen 18%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Groningen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 59%, Groningen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Groningen's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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