Jong Ajax 0-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong Ajax face Almere City FC.

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Full Analysis

Sportcomplex De Toekomst plays host to Jong Ajax versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie (matchday 33). Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Jong Ajax's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Jong Ajax's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Almere City FC have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Jong Ajax's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) — Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Almere City FC in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Jong Ajax, 3 for Almere City FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2025, ended Jong Ajax 2–3 Almere City FC — a Almere City FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Almere City FC — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 52% versus Almere City FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 54% | Almere City FC 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 2.29 xG and Almere City FC 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.165 / defence 1.075 | Almere City FC attack 1.270 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.448. Almere City FC's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong Ajax's projected output up. Almere City FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.270, which lifts their away xG to 1.98. Data: built from Jong Ajax's last 70 games and Almere City FC's last 32.

Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 46% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.18 | Draw 5.06 | Almere City FC 2.92. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 77% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% — both xG figures (2.29 / 1.98) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.27 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Ajax's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Ajax 60% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 90% (last 10 away games).

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