Helmond Sport 0-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Helmond Sport and Cambuur meet at GS Staalwerken Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Helmond Sport (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Helmond Sport's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Cambuur have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cambuur arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Helmond Sport's last 10 home games and Cambuur's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Helmond Sport's games and 80% of Cambuur's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Helmond Sport, 0 for Cambuur and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2025, ended Helmond Sport 0–0 Cambuur — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Helmond Sport — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Cambuur — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 62% versus Cambuur 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 62% | Cambuur 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Helmond Sport surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Cambuur have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.39 xG and Cambuur 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.960 / defence 1.039 | Cambuur attack 1.183 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.471. Data: built from Helmond Sport's last 69 games and Cambuur's last 68.
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 29% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 47%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 3.41 | Draw 4.21 | Cambuur 2.13. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.39 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Helmond Sport's last 10 home games and Cambuur's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Helmond Sport 80% (last 10 home games) | Cambuur 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 32 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 29% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Helmond Sport 1.39 / Cambuur 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.960 / def 1.039 | Cambuur attack 1.183 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Cambuur xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Helmond Sport vs Cambuur FAQs
What time does Helmond Sport vs Cambuur kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 16 March 2026 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Cambuur?
Helmond Sport 0 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Cambuur part of?
Helmond Sport vs Cambuur is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 32) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 29% chance of winning, Cambuur a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Helmond Sport and Cambuur will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Helmond Sport vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Helmond Sport's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.18x) against Helmond Sport's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from Helmond Sport's last 69 games and Cambuur's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
29%
3.41
24%
4.21
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.20
1.81
Cambuur xG
3.41
29%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
5%
20.79
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Helmond Sport vs Cambuur Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.81 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Helmond Sport have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 21W 16D 32L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Cambuur's form line: 41W 13D 15L from 69 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helmond Sport.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Helmond Sport have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 33 home games (13W 9D 11L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 18W 6D 9L from their last 33 away games — 1.82 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.81 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
Helmond Sport (Home) vs Cambuur (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Helmond Sport
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
❓ Helmond Sport vs Cambuur Form FAQs
What form are Helmond Sport and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 21W 16D 32L in their last 69 games (1.14 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 41W 13D 15L in their last 69 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.45 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Cambuur in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Helmond Sport and Cambuur, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 16 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helmond Sport have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
3
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Helmond Sport vs Cambuur H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Cambuur?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Helmond Sport have won 2, Cambuur have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Cambuur last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2026: Helmond Sport 0-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Cambuur?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 70%, Cambuur 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Helmond Sport) and 52% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Helmond Sport vs Cambuur Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Helmond Sport and Cambuur matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Helmond Sport's games and 52% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Helmond Sport and Cambuur matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Helmond Sport's matches and 52% of Cambuur's.
Do Helmond Sport and Cambuur matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 82% of Cambuur's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Helmond Sport 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Helmond Sport 0-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.39 xG and Cambuur 1.81 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Helmond Sport fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cambuur landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Cambuur attack 1.18 / defence 0.91, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 29% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 47%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 62%, Cambuur 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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